Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Dow



12/19 in hindsight looks like a turning point low week, followed by 1/2/17 which was a high.  The next week closed lower and this current week is lower so far, and not a turning point yet.  Maybe it will turn pack up next week.

So with chaos expected Friday, this could take a dive and hit support in the week beginning 1/23?  Our evolution tools say sell right now


January doesn't appear to be a month of great consequence for the DOW, maybe Feb, and then even more likely April.  However 4th quarter seems to have been a turning point, which would surely be a high.

I really don't know where you can draw any nearby support right now other than this horizontal green bar.  So I suppose I'll wait for that to either break or the new all time high and play it to continue.





The space between the green lines is about 600 points.  So if it breaks new all time highs I will go long, if it breaks this first green line I'll play it to make the second one. 

What to be ready for in Gold

This post is going to be Armstrong-centric








At the moment we have hit roughly the 1218 line and ebbed slightly.  This could be the high for the time being.  Armstrong: "Our timing models had targeted this week of the 16th for a turning point.  We have been warning for months that January would be a key timing target. Gold tends to be very seasonal and January is often the time for highs and lows on a major scale... Be an guard for a high this week"

So this could be set up.  I think I will wait for a sell signal on evolution. 

The real question is, will it take out the previous low (bearish) or form a higher low (bullish).  I recommend finding some John Howell talking about gold charts on youtube.

I think gold could be wild either way, so I'll be staying "out of the money", less max risk this way. 

For the price target, I think this is at least 113 on the GLD if it makes a higher low, and much lower if not.  Another possible target is 110.4 or taking out the previous low entirely if it stays bearish.

The other thing to watch out for is Friday.  I'm expecting at least moderate chaos during the inauguration.  Other than for the reason of "why not?" I do have some evidence on this.  Is chaos bullish for gold?  Honestly it's hard to say what's bullish for gold.

I might diversify this with some puts on FXE.  It's gone up a lot and I think remains in a bear market.

One final image


This his a quarterly gold turning point for 3rd correctly.  So it seems to suggest that we are not turning at the moment.



Friday, January 13, 2017

DJIA before the close for the upcoming weeks

While I could put more into this post, there isn't enough time.  So I'm coming at you with the basics.


A lot of people are out there saying the Dow is about to make a big move one way or the other, based on the current compression.  I contend there is sufficient evidence to think it will go in the general direction of down. 


Way overbought on the UO, and actually this is a sell signal on the weekly chart.  I probably won't do anything myself until Tuesday because weekends scare me. 



Also, recall the timing array from Armstrong economics.


After the week of 1/02 was a high, this week finished down and is not a turning point week.


Other stuff I don't have time to do properly, last quarter was a big turning point quarter, so that might be significant.


The next major turning point month is Febuary.


All of this is based on my opinions only!

Thursday, December 29, 2016

It's all about the January

So I guess forget the last thing he said about a correction in January


"In 2017, I will publish a breakdown of sectors and the differences between them. Keep in mind that the bulk of the retail public are not yet back in the market. The majority keeps saying how overvalued the market is, yet a substantial amount of people are all looking to buy the dip. Trump will be very good for the US markets and economy. Reducing taxes will bring capital home and it has already resulted in a new 13-year high in consumer confidence. That is the key to the market going into 2018.
The reflection point that will tip the scales to extremely bullish will turn on confidence.


What MUST BE UNDERSTOOD here is we have two possible patterns: (1) We leave 2016 as the intraday high temporarily and back off, moving to retest support into 2018, and then rally in a major breakout into 2020, or (2) we press immediately higher and complete the rally by 2018 followed by a harder crash and burn.


These are the two possible paths that are coming up and it will all depend upon the actions and tone we set in January. We will prepare a very important special report on this topic."


(ask-Socrates.com)


So either stocks are going to take off then crash, or crash then take off.  I'm not sure how actionable that is.


(1) looks more likely to me as rates are going up, and I expect government rigging to subside as the good guys are taking over things.


Also Trumps tweet about the Dow being so high a day or two ago might mark a long term high.


Things like this mark the highs all too often.  Reminds me of Obama saying to short Russia (at the lows)  I think specifically he was talking about the currency. 

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

It looks like a GLD bottom

By the way, the actual 2016 bottom was on a date given by Bo Polny!  After he nailed the 2015 bottom.  Unlike most people who get some stuff from him, I actually listen to ALL his interviews and videos, and he's pretty good.  He was wrong from about the election for a few months, like not even close, but he really nailed a lot of tops and bottoms in several different markets.  A lot of people have been wrong on the markets since Trump won.


Anyway, look at these weekly charts, with the original and alternate+compression systems from mannarino.  There's a solid higher high, that took out many previous highs, and a higher low from the 2015 low. 


It looks like on both Evo and Compression that this is bottoming, not daily bottoms, but more powerful weekly.


I might be cheerleading a bit here, so I really don't recommend buying at this time.  This is just a watch for me.  If I did buy, I'd be expecting a pretty long sustained move, so I might go far into the future and far out of the money to keep it cheep.  That way if it takes longer I'll still make money, or if it fails completely, at least they were cheap options.


Also note, that is an extreme on the UO, a 2 year low at least.  Note that this is an oscillator, meaning it does actually have to come back up at some point. 


The only knock I have is that Armstrong still says this is going lower.  He's been fighting the rally all year though.  I believe he will be wrong on this, mostly because he staunchly advocates that there is no long term suppression scheme, nor are there supply shortages. 


One more knock, is that if you go from the all time high and draw a trend line, the recent high was a 3rd touch on that, and it hasn't been broken. 


Gold is prevalent on the new economist cover. 

Digesting some tips to use with Evolution

Always Zoom out! and check the weekly chart.  The weekly chart will often have some really nice and consistent trending highs and lows, and make some good support lines.  You don't want to go long up against a 3 year resistance, or short with a 3 year support line in my opinion. 


So basically, make sure the weekly price chart agrees with what you think based on the daily chart. 


Also you might be better off ignoring the plays that go against the long term trend, i.e. going long in a trend of lower highs.


Check out this chart going back to 2014.


If you looked much more shorter term, you may have seen DB make a nice bottom and start a bull trend.  But, if you look at this 3 year chart, this is just a normal/random move up to the resistance. 


Also this up move is not very steep.  With options you want steep.  If go with the trend you get better profit per trade. 


Just fyi, if you give some flexibility to the rate hike day, you basically have a sell signal on the daily.  Otherwise the rate hike spike low for DB makes that the most recent pivot point, and it's a low.

Today was a turning point for the Dow

I guess it had to be a high, since stocks were up today.  I think as per usual, Bo Polny predicts a major crash tomorrow or the next day.


Dow still did not hit 20K. 


Earlier in the month Armstrong said there was a real risk of a contraction in January.  That is looking pretty credible.


So maybe we will get to 20K by January before a contraction.  Who knows.  I can't get anything from looking at the chart.  I don't want to try to hard and force myself to see something that isn't there.


I think despite being able to draw a resistance line at 20K, the roundness and bigness of the number does make it a very high potential resistance price.


Keep in mind people don't want to sell and have to pay the gains on it next year, it would be way better to lock in profits next year and pay the year after.  That gives a lot of credence to a possible January correction.  There has been quite a few in the past.