Thursday, February 16, 2017

Some timing arrays


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/dow-jones/the-dow-2-15-2017-looking-ahead/


I'm linking to this article because it will be useful for trading in the near future.


I don't quite understand the weekly array.  The dates given are Wednesdays.


Update!***************


It looks like Armstrong is expected 2-21 to be a low (so then maybe 2-20 is sort of a mini-high? And then rallies from the 22 through the 27th. 


WAIT! actually the 20th is a holiday!  So I think we should be short through the weekend.

Friday, February 10, 2017


These both look super bearish on weekly charts, SLV and O.  I'm thinking any sort of up close on Monday and bail on these. 


O especially has a target like 20% down from here.

Markets through mid March

Yes it's been a while since the last post!  But I don't want to post stuff just to have a post.  There are a number of people calling for the market to go down next week. 


Bo Polny keeps calling for crashes that don't happen, but several times there have been 10% drops on his timing, and many times the market does indeed hit a temporarily low on his dates.  He's expecting two cycle lows, Feb 15 and March something or other.  I'll look that up when we get closer. 


Martin Armstrong has been predicting this week to be a short term top also.  He also said somewhere recently that when a market creeps up like the last few weeks, it's not really a great bull market, and could be a "bull trap"


Webbot is generally pro crisis from mid Feb onward.


however, John Howell says it's all bullish. 


After this good run, my opinion is that we will get a down week, and who knows/cares how low it will go. 


Martin Armstrong has the following weekly reversals:
The Weekly Projected Bullish Reversals are  20,475.23,  20,518.80, 21,882.34, and 22,188.86. These are the What-If numbers so they may change if we make a new weekly low.  I don't think we are supposed to pay too much attention to these in the near future based on context.


So how can I play it safe and still capitalize if it's true?  Here's the SPX.  Maybe it's at a top.  Some previous touches sold off, but recently it hasn't.  I think shorting this is risky.  Having said that, I don't know what support would be, those major bottoms don't line up as well is they look from here, but maybe they point to like 2175.


The following charts are all weekly




Silver is maybe at some kind of top, I'd say overall it looks bearish to me and Armstrong thinks so too.  Most others would disagree, but I don't have Polny's gold forecast.  Maybe it would say something like "one more possible sell off before moonshot.  The gold chart really doesn't line up much right now. 

I like the following charts much better.  What if the market crashes, do you think Greece or Italy would be spared?  I think Greece is going to lead the way into the sucky future.



The Italy chart (EWI) looks similar to this Greece one (GREK).  GREK is also at some support, so I think a pro would say to make sure it breaks before entering.  EWI is maybe at a horizontal support?

EEM (emerging markets) is sort of at a double top right now, so I'm going to pay attention to the close and Monday's action.

The final chart is a long term DB chart.  Why DB?  Because it always pops into my head if I'm thinking of a possible crash (I use the term loosely) 



So these later charts have not only bounced off of multi year resistance, but have also turned down in the most recent bars.  Also these lines can be solid exit-cut-losses points, which I now realize are essential. 







Monday, January 30, 2017

This level looks important / SPX


Whichever side we close on, I might put options in that direction. 


I went in on GREK on Friday, puts, despite a massive move in my direction, the put price barely moved :/  This seems to happen a lot to me, and I haven't figured it out yet.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

The Dow and the Road to Roota

I've got a sneaking suspicion that the game is changing. 


While this doesn't mean that much by itself, the recent daily timing array seems uncorrelated to reality. 


What's really playing out seems to be the Bix Weir version.  He was very accurate about the election and the Deutsche bank situation last year.


As per Bix Weir's version of conspiracy, "The Road to Roota"
The Bad guys were flying high last year, with everything rigged for a Hillary election.  They beat the FBI already (the first time).  Hillary was up like 15 points.


There was the wikileaks factor, but it appeared that Hillary got the best of them.  Later Assange was taken out, at the same time as twitter to prevent him from getting a message out.  To this day I'm not sure he's back, but it does appear to be the case, thankfully for him.


Then Tragedy struck as Comey (hero) got a hold of Weiner's laptop will the dirtiest of the dirt on Hillary.  The polls tanked as the rigged system didn't know what was going to happen.  The FBI believed her to be "Devil Incarnate" they say.  After a week of browsing the laptop, the FBI was prepared to go on a raid the Saturday before the election. 


Instead that didn't happen, and on Sunday they announce they got nothing.  It was the sign that a deal had been struck, and Hillary switched the rig to Trump and now she's off the hook, with Trump even saying as much.


Long story short - the good guys took over. 


With that, it may be time to end the manipulation.  Dow hits 20K today.  If this is the all time high I won't be surprised, however as you know, this could end in hyperinflation that doesn't see stocks fall at all (but rise less than metals or bitcoin)


Having said that, it's not necessary to jump in short right now.  I considered it yesterday, which would have been a mistake.  If it closes down today then I'm pretty sure it's over.


In Bo Polny theory, the dow would hit 20K then crash.  He backed off that, satisfied with 19999.67 rounded, and thought yesterday that the high was in place and it would crash through Feb 15.  Today is not doing that any favors, but maybe they rigged a 20K day first?  So I'm going to wait another day to see what happens. 


Armstrong says a close over 20012 means we will get to 23000. 
Mannarino is expecting a sustained Trump rally.


EDIT- I just reviewed Polny and he says Jan 13th was the maximum time point for a new high.  Most of his dates lately have been Fridays, so I'm going to pay attention to see if the Friday close is back down below the past weekly closes.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Trades I'm considering right now

With Jan 20th seemingly a intergalactic nexus of importance:


Martin Armstrong predicts a gold high this week, so I'm considering this, far out of the money incase it goes against me, I'll mostly just be out commissions.


At the same time, I'm also considering gold longs also far out of the money based mostly on Polny or the generally idea of manipulation/rigging coming to a close.


I'm short GS with options expiring Friday.  I went 3 clicks into the money such that there was essentially no cost to hold.  It requires more money down this way.  This short is based mostly off of John Howells advice.


I will probably go long in general after tomorrow based off the daily array.  Either SPX or maybe Mannarino's picks or maybe I will go digging for my own signals.  Several of Mannarino's longs look like they are at weekly peaks and look bad for this reason.

Friday Turning Point Dow Array

I think this will be a good one.  The following is directly from Armstrong economics


DJIND-D FOR 1-17-2017
It is interesting how the computer has picked up the 20th as an important date from the cycles rather than fundamentals.
DJIND-M FOR 1-19-2017
We still see February as a Directional Change and volatility should rise into the April/May time frame overall in many markets.


---------------------------
So perhaps there has been some trepidation with the upcoming inauguration.  We've had a number of consecutive lower days.  Once we get past the inauguration there may be a lift off / new all time high? 


The monthly trend has been up, so Feb might mark a turning point for the lower.  This February Monthly bar has been showing up for a long time and hasn't changed, although now it's a bit smaller.


Whatever happens in May looks major.